One thing stood out to me during the 0-0 draw between England and Slovakia on Monday evening. Clive Tyldesley the ITV commentator that the evening stated that 25% of the goals in the tournament so far have been scored beyond the 85th minute.
This got me thinking… Why? Why has there been such a large number of goals in the last period of the game?
There are a number of reasons in my opinion why this is happening, one being physical fatigue. Professional football is played by highly tuned athletes; footballers are stronger; faster and fitter than ever before. Players are regularly clocking up 9km-11km of movement per game.
Modern players, you could argue are also more technically advanced, this results in better ball control which leads to teams having high amounts of possession. We all know that when out of possession, most players have less desire than when they have the ball. A ball at your feet brings about another wave of energy, whereas out of possession players are forced to press the ball, squeeze space, block passing lanes, adjust footwork to stay goal side/ball side, to tackle, to jump, to recover. All of these techniques involve their anaerobic system, a system which floods the body with lactic acid. If you are involved in a team that has to sacrifice possession to a more technically ‘efficient’ team, this has to be a major factor in potentially conceding a late goal.
Staying on the subject of fatigue, I will now touch up on the mental side.
At the start of a long drive, maybe traveling to a holiday destination, there is excitement, maybe a touch of nervous energy, adrenaline flashes through the body at the thought of good times ahead. 2, 3, 4 or even 5+ hours into the journey, restlessness, tiredness, negative body language and quietness creeps in. No physical energy has been lost, however mentally it can feel like you have participated in a marathon. Football is no different, however try combining the mental with the physical fatigue as well!
The thought process of a footballer during a 90-minute match is nonstop. Which foot? What technique? Which pass? When to run? Where to run? How fast do I run? When to jump? When to help a team mate? When to recover and block? When to communicate? Listen to instructions from staff? Block out fans chants/opinions?
Mentally this must be exhausting, especially on the world’s biggest stage. Every touch/action is immediately judged by everyone watching and pressure within can build up.
Towards the end of the match, reaction times slow down, mistakes are more common, the loss of inches can be the difference between blocking a shot and a goal being scored. Ever wondered why a second half of football is so different visually, to the first 45 minutes? Games become more open, the best players are usually the difference. This for me is down to both physical and mental exhaustion.
We have all heard of the phrase “Super Sub”. So how can a substitute become a hero? The topic of fatigue above plays a significant role when it comes to substitutions. Replacing tired players with fresh players is a common trait within the game. Fresh energy, physically and mentally is one of the main factors to why late goals are scored. I liken it to Formula 1 and the effect fresh new tyres can have on the race, for example, better grip, fast=better performance.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is famously known by football fans as someone who regularly made an impact late on as a substitute and Manchester United’s famous Champions League triumph in 1999 involved 2 late goals, one by Solskjaer himself and on by Teddy Sheringham who both entered in the latter stages of the match. More recently in Euro 2016, England’s comeback against the Wales needed 2 goals by Vardy and Sturridge who were both substitutes. These changes can also have a positive impact on the whole team’s energy levels and desire to feed the fresh players the football.
Relating substitutes to a change in tactics works hand in hand. When a team is chasing a goal like England were, a number of things usually occur. More forwards are brought onto the pitch; this has an effect on the opposition and they usually counteract this attacking play by dropping deeper in greater numbers and closing down the space to try and stop the opposition playing through them. This again is countered by the attacking team as they deploy the tactic of the ‘long ball’ which usually coincides with a big ‘centre back’ being employed as an emergency striker. This tactic of playing ‘long’ can eliminate many players and the amount of ball entries into the penalty box increases dramatically, all be it a bet on lottery, it can pose the opposition a lot of questions and problems. A fine example again involving England at Euro 2016, was the goal Russia’s centre back Berezutski scored as he leapt above the England defence from a high ball and connected to equalise in the dying moments. The tactical changes create pressure and sometimes panic which is why we see so many dramatic moments late in football matches.
Above I have highlighted what I feel are the main factors as to why teams generally score or concede late goals. Other factors to consider and require further research are:
- League/Knockout Situation/Goal Difference – Going into a game knowing you have to win or score a certain amount of goals.
- Influence of the crowd – More/less fans in the stadium can have positive or negative effects depending on the mentality of the team. (Home vs Away team)
- Influence of the officials late in the match – Referee fatigue
To conclude, we can all agree without late excitement of last minute changes/goals, the game would be worse off, long live the last minute goals – as long as they don’t go against your team!
